Prediction of Lorenzo Giustino vs Gianluca Cadenasso at Montemar Challenger 11-22-25

• Lorenzo Giustino has a slight edge in second serve performance, winning 41.64% of his second serve points recently compared to Gianluca Cadenasso's 40.59%.
• In return games, Giustino is more dominant on second serve returns, winning 46.10% of points compared to Cadenasso's 44.58%:
• However, Cadenasso outperforms Giustino on first serve returns with a 32.15% success rate versus 26.72%.
• Under pressure, Giustino has been more effective, saving 52.64% of breakpoints compared to Cadenasso's 47.24%.
• Over the past year, Cadenasso has a slightly better win rate at 68.12% (47/22) compared to Giustino's 65.96% (62/32).
• Giustino excels on clay with a 56% win rate, while Cadenasso's best surface is hard courts, also at 56%.
• In head-to-head matches, Giustino leads with 2 wins and 0 sets lost against Cadenasso.
• Both players have mostly competed in Futures/Satellites/ITF circuits, with Giustino winning 77.97% and Cadenasso 68.00%.
• Giustino has faced tougher opponents on average, with their average rank being 363.97 compared to Cadenasso's 433.94.
• Interestingly, if the match goes to a deciding set, Cadenasso has a 78% win rate compared to Giustino's 59%.

Editorial Prediction (November 22, 2025, UTC):

Lorenzo Giustino displays strong second serve performance and has shown consistently better return game statistics, particularly in head-to-head matches against Gianluca Cadenasso. His ability to save breakpoints also suggests strong mental toughness, which is crucial in tight matches.

While Gianluca Cadenasso performs better on first serve returns and has a higher overall yearly match win percentage, Giustino's historical advantage in their direct encounters can't be overlooked.

Considering the head-to-head record, especially Giustino’s clay court success and superior opponent quality faced, Giustino appears to have the upper hand going into this match.

Therefore, based on the analysis of past performances and current statistics, Lorenzo Giustino is most likely to win the upcoming tennis match.